One more outbracket game to go before the playoffs really get started. Tonight we’ll find out whether top AA seed Mamaroneck will be taking on New Rochelle (they pray) or Carmel (they pray not). Then it’s a Saturday full to bursting with 18 first-round matchups. I feel like last year’s chaotic AA has made everyone eager for this postseason because everyone feels like they have a chance.

Of course when it comes to putting their butts on the line with predictions, us analysts are notoriously wussy. We know there will be upsets. We just don’t know where, and we can’t justify picking a 15-seed to beat a 2-seed. I’ll try to take a couple of chances. Including a No. 15 over a No. 2.

Class AA

No. 16 Carmel/No. 17 New Rochelle at No. 1 Mamaroneck: I’m going to work on the assumption that Carmel beats New Rochelle today behind Matt Volpe. Despite the low seed Carmel is a much stronger team than New Ro. Which adds up to a nightmare scenario for Mamaroneck. Not because the Tigers will lose. I don’t think they will. But the last thing they want as they begin another pressurized title run is the ghosts of last year’s first-round shocker. Our local columnist, Rick Carpiniello, will be at Mamaroneck, and I guarantee if the home team wins he’ll come back with quotes like, “We wanted to face Carmel. We wanted to get back at them for last year.” Don’t buy it. They wish they had a nice easy matchup. They’ll sweat the night before, although the result will be the same. Mamaroneck hits Carmel’s No. 2 starter and wins behind Sean Hagan. Mamaroneck 11, Carmel 2

No. 9 Saunders at No. 8 Arlington: One Yonkers team always gets a relatively good seed, handing one lucky opponent a first-round gimme. Last year it was North Rockland. Although it wasn’t a blowout, the Red Raiders used that round to propel themselves to a title. I think Arlington will do the same this year. The Admirals certainly won’t use ace Greg Ackley. They may turn to No. 3 starter Dylan Britton, who, while he’s struggled against some lineups, threw 5.1 shutout innings against comparable Lincoln early in the year. By the way, Arlington won that Lincoln game 29-0. Yikes. Arlington 15, Saunders 1

No. 12 North Rockland at No. 5 Yorktown: North Rockland has been very inconsistent while defending its title, owing to a lack of power and shaky starting pitching behind its big two. However, I think those two can carry them through the first two rounds and into the semifinals. It starts with a win over Yorktown, which played a Class A schedule. Yorktown only beat four AA teams, none with winning records. North Rockland beat 12. Whether Ryan Fasano or Nick Viohl gets the ball, this should be a low-scoring win in North Rockland’s favor. North Rockland 4, Yorktown 2

No. 13 White Plains at No. 4 R.C. Ketcham: Josh has been hating on Ketcham lately because it’s 6-6 in its last 12. Whatever. Those 12 opponents have all been bigger and badder than White Plains. Unless Nick Cutsumpas gets on base and does some things with his legs, the Tigers won’t score enough runs. Their only glimmer of hope is that Ketcham just lost to Scarsdale, which White Plains beat once in three tries. Ketcham 9, White Plains 1

No. 14 Greeley at No. 3 Suffern: Right off the bat let me say I picked Suffern to win it all in yesterday’s podcast. It starts here, where I think they’ll get past Greeley despite a surprisingly stiff challenge. And I think it comes without Robbie Aviles on the mound. My guess is either Jared Randazzo or Jim Brennan will start, leaving Aviles to go against John Jay-East Fishkill. Both have high walk rates, which is concerning since the Quakers draw four walks a game. But Mounties leadoff man Brennan is scorching right now. He’ll get a pair of hits to help break Quakers starter Drew Levinson’s streak of three straight starts of seven innings and two or fewer runs. Suffern 3, Horace Greeley 2

No. 11 Scarsdale at No. 6 John Jay-East Fishkill: The good news for Scarsdale, as I mentioned earlier, is that it just beat Fishkill’s League I-C compadre Ketcham. The bad news is, Fishkill beat Ketcham too. Three times. I was actually leaning toward Fishkill for the title until I changed my mind at the last second and switched to Suffern. Ben Weber will be rusty for Scarsdale after not having taken the mound in two weeks, and JJEF will jump on him. JJEF 8, Scarsdale 4

No. 10 Fox Lane at No. 7 Mahopac: In April, Mahopac looked like a title contender. The three starters were shutting people down left and right and the hitting was doing just enough. Well it hasn’t done enough recently, putting title hopes in jeopardy. Still, I think they make it to Round 2. I’m not as high on Fox Lane as Josh is, despite a nine-game hit streak by Tim Panetta and some overall good play. One of their big guns will pitch six solid innings and maybe Nick Raptis will continue his 4 for 4 day that he had against Suffern. Mahopac 5, Fox Lane 3

No. 15 Clarkstown North vs No. 2 John Jay: Warning! Warning! Fifteen-seed alert! I’m supposed to pick upset here, right? Hmmm, I dunno…. OK, why not. Peer pressure always works with me. I actually think North has a great chance here, so let’s go for broke and pick them. I’ve thought all year that North is better than .500. And the skepticism about John Jay has been well documented here at the Leading Off blog. The recent sweep at the hands of Somers didn’t help. This game could play out much like North Rockland’s circus win at John Jay last year. North comes in with a fraction of the batting stats of John Jay. Five Indians have an average higher than that of Rams leading hitter Joe Ferrara. Yet when the Rams get into that bandbox at John Jay, they’ll crush three homers and score 10 runs. Clarkstown North 10, John Jay 8

Class A

No. 9 Ardsley at No. 8 Panas: Did you know CF Kiyota Gomi leads Ardsley in hits, runs, triples, on-base, slugging, steals, innings pitched, strikeouts, and wins? Neither did I. Guy’s good. That’s enough to earn Ardsley a date with top-seed Lakeland. Ardsley 6, Panas 2

No. 12 Rye at No. 5 Tappan Zee: Let’s hope Rye was nice to TZ on the way up, because it’s about to meet TZ again on the way down. The Garnets, once considered a challenger to Pelham in League III-B, has lost seven of eight and nine of 12. Tappan Zee, meanwhile, is 12-3 since getting its full roster back from suspension. It has three very good starters now in Tyler Rorick, Johnny Wong, and Bruce Jensen. Any one could pick up this win. And Rorick is raking with an 18-game hit streak. Tappan Zee 7, Rye 3

No. 13 Brewster at No. 4 Somers: Over the last eight games Somers has looked like the team we expected all year. And like the team you picked to repeat as champions in our poll. In winning seven of eight they’ve beaten John Jay twice and JJEF. But take a closer look and you’ll see they’ve been winning by outslugging people, not outpitching them like we thought. It’s hard to slug your way through the playoffs. It won’t be hard to slug their way through Brewster, however. The Bears give up almost seven runs a game. Kyle Woltersdorf had four hits in their first meeting and should swing the stick well again. Somers 13, Brewster 5

No. 14 Byram Hills at No. 3 Hen Hud: Hen Hud has flown under the radar this year, so much so that it surprised me when I saw its high seed. It’s top starters have pitched pretty well, especially Mike Tandy, the big sophomore. Don’t know if he’ll take the hill here or if Paul Natale will save him for the Eastchester/Pearl River winner. He may take a look at Byram’s 5.88 team ERA and figure he can win with the bats and without his top starter. Hen Hud 9, Byram Hills 6

No. 11 Pearl River at No. 6 Eastchester: Tough call here. I’ve gone back and forth a couple of times. On one hand, Pearl River beat Eastchester 15-4 in this round last year. On the other hand Eastchester beat Pearl River 10-2 a week ago. On the other hand Pearl River threw its third starter that game instead of workhorse Steve Putnick. On the other hand Eastchester has won 14 of 15 as the hottest team in Section 1. What’s a prognosticator to do? You know what? Since I’ll be at this game and want to maintain a veneer of objectivity, I’ll remain neutral.

Class B

No. 9 Pleasantville at No. 8 Bronxville: Probable Pleasantville starter Mike Marrone has been pretty consistent lately. He almost beat Eastchester. Bronxville is playing its worst ball of the season. It hasn’t hit at all in the month of May, culminating in a bad loss to Solomon Schechter. Pleasantville has shown a propensity for winning low-scoring battles, which they do here. Pleasantville 4, Bronxville 1

No. 11 Westlake at No. 6 Rye Neck: Josh and I disagreed about this one on the podcast. he thinks Rye Neck, with hitters like Jack Newton and Ryan Pennell and a hurler like Kevin McQuade, is all-around too good for Westlake. I’m convinced that Westlake can take its game to another level when need be. The Wildcats beat Kennedy, something no one else in Class B can claim. And, needing a win to make the playoffs, they beat a superior Pelham squad on the season’s last game. Westlake 7, Rye Neck 6

No. 10 Hastings at No. 7 Putnam Valley: I got four words for you: Pat Con-si-dine. Put Valley’s ace has struck out more people than anyone in the LoHud except Brendan Hourihan. And he’s batting .519 with four homers. He’ll power the Tigers to victory one way or another. For those who like Hastings here I understand the rationale: two-time defending champs have a certain allure. But these aren’t your father’s Hornets. It’s a new roster, new inexperience. Plus they limped into the playoffs. Putnam Valley 7, Hastings 2