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Baseball in the Lower Hudson Valley

Josh’s first-round predictions

May
31

I just read the comments beneath Jake’s predictions and discovered that some of you are clearly hiding from this unquestionable truth: We are two different people. I know, I know, the names are confusing. Blame our parents, but don’t take it out on us.

Anyway, it looks like we’re in store for a soggy Saturday. If play is washed out, we’ll update it as soon as we can. Also, like I’ve said the last two days, Saturday rainouts will be pushed back to Sunday.

Whenever the heck they do play, here’s who I like in Round 1:

CLASS AA —
No. 16 Carmel at No. 1 Mamaroneck:
As I said in yesterday’s podcast, I’m not getting roped into the tantalizing pick. Sure, this matchup has a serious number of storylines, but I believe Mamaroneck is better than last year. Carmel will keep it close behind Mike Volpe, but it’ll need offense outside of the woefully underrated John Kiechle to win. I’m not sure the Rams get it. Mamaroneck 4, Carmel 2
No. 9 Saunders at No. 8 Arlington: Poor Saunders. The Blue Devils have been overlooked by all of us, yet to them this is a major achievement. From my point of view, I can’t see how an experienced team like this can wake up early and make the trek north (gotta be almost two hours on a bus), and still hope to compete with such a strong opponent. Remember, Lincoln had North Rockland on the ropes last year; I just don’t believe Saunders has that in it. Arlington 8, Saunders 0
No. 12 North Rockland at No. 5 Yorktown: The Huskers have two positives in their favor: a much better record and a home-field advantage. Problem is that and a quarter can buy a gumball against the defending Class AA champ and former MVP Ryan Fasano. I expect Fasano and co. to regain some mojo upon their return to the playoffs, so I like them here. In almost any other instance, tough-minded and tight-knit Yorktown would get my upset nod. (Yes, I’d consider a Yorktown win here an upset.) North Rockland 3, Yorktown 2
No. 13 White Plains at No. 4 Ketcham: I completely agree with Jake on this one, except for that dig against me hatin’ on Ketcham. That’s ridiculous, but so is Jake. The Tigers would need a yeoman effort out of seniors Josh Herzenberg and Max Lambert to compete here. Ketcham 11, White Plains 3
No. 11 Scarsdale at No. 6 John Jay-EF: I could’ve made my best point of the year in Thursday night’s podcast… I actually believe Scarsdale’s win over Ketcham this month hurts it against JJEF. It won’t scare the Patriots, but it shows them Scardale must be taken seriously. They’ll win, and set up a great quarterfinal vs. Suffern. JJEF 7, Scarsdale 4
No. 14 Greeley vs. No. 3 Suffern:
This is one of the harder games to predict in the first round. Not the result — I like Suffern — but the score. It’s dependent on whether or not Robbie Aviles pitches, and if he pitches how many pitches he throws. I’ll take the conservative route. Suffern 6, Greeley 3
No. 10 Fox Lane at No. 7 Mahopac:
A rematch of the Tantalos tourney championship game but the pitchers will be far different. C.J. Riefenhauser goes for the Indians, while the Foxes will likely turn to either Mike Giordano or Donny Pitasi, both of which are capable of a strong outing. Still, Riefenhauser is the difference. He thrives in big spots. Mahopac 4, Fox Lane 3
No. 15 Clarkstown North at No. 2 John Jay:
I’ve heard enough on the rumor mill to believe Stephen Green is available. I don’t know how much he pitches after this long a layoff, but I bet the Indians will be geared up to prove detractors wrong. They better be sharp because North has all its pitching in line. John Jay 8, Clarkstown North 4

CLASS A —
No. 9 Ardsley at No. 8 Panas:
Stunningly, Jake’s right about Kioyta Gomi, who has done nothing but post great stats in a strong league for two years running. If he’s on the mound, that gives Ardsley the edge. I’ve also been impressed with Panas of late. Not only did it hang with rival Lakeland twice, it also beat Yorktown early last week. This is one of the tougher games to pick in the first round. Ardsley 2, Panas 1
No. 12 Rye at No. 5 Tappan Zee:
Unfortunately, I haven’t seen either team this season. Jake’s seen both and he likes TZee, so that’s a pretty good endorsement. Also, when in doubt, you have to take the hotter team and with Rye having lost seven of eight it’s the Dutchmen who are hotter. Tappan Zee 8, Rye 7

No. 13 Brewster at No. 4 Somers: As I said two days ago, I now like Somers to win it all, so it’s obvious I like it to win here. That said, it’s been a remarkable turnaround for the Bears, who were very young and inexperienced when I saw them vs. Carmel. They rallied to play more competitive games and to qualify for the playoffs. Next year they’ll take another step or two. Somers 9, Brewster 3
No. 11 Pearl River at No. 6 Eastchester:
Jake retained his objectivity by not picking this one, but I’d bet he just found it easier to sit it out. This is brutally tough to call. First, you can’t be quite sure who will pitch for the Eagles. Second, both teams are capable of just about anything. I’ll yet again abide by the theory of picking the hotter team, and that’s Eastchester. Eastchester 7, Pearl River 5
No. 14 Byram Hills at No. 3 Hen Hud:
Not much to add here about two teams I’ve never seen. The Sailors have had their ugly moments, but not against a team like the Bobcats, who play in an inferior league. That’s another of my theories: When in doubt, pick the better-tested club. Hen Hud 11, Byram Hills 4
No. 10 Lourdes at No. 7 Beacon: I don’t know anything about these teams except that neither quite as strong as normal. Take Beacon with the homefield. Beacon 5, Lourdes 4

CLASS B —
No. 11 Westlake at No. 6 Rye Neck: With Kevin McQuade and Ryan Pennell, the Panthers have the arms to withstand an upset bid. They’ll need them, because the streaky Wildcats have beat Kennedy and Pelham. I don’t think coach Tyler Slater wanted to see them, but I don’t expect it matters. Rye Neck 4, Westlake 1
No. 10 Hastings at No. 7 Putnam Valley:
Great pitching matchup with Blicker vs. Considine. With the way Hastings has played, it needs Blicker on the mound. But like I said in the contest, I believe he’ll be enough to shutdown the Tigers’ offense. Hastings 3, Putnam Valley 2
No. 9 Pleasantville at No. 8 Bronxville:
This pick follows my second theory. Stronger league, stronger team. Plus, the Panthers have really played well after a slow start, and it’s been rooted in their pitching. Pleasantville 5, Bronxville 3

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 31st, 2008 at 10:12 am by Josh Thomson.
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One Response to “Josh’s first-round predictions”

  1. el estudiante

    Mamk 2 – Carmel 1
    Bottom 4th

    In the top of the frame, Carmel got two well placed grounders and a steal to get their first run of the game. Hagan minimized the damage with two strikeouts in the inning.

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Josh Thomson and Jake Thomases tell you who's safe and who's out as they follow baseball in the Lower Hudson Valley.

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About the authors
Jay GallagherJosh Thomson has done some of everything since joining The Journal News in March 2003. He began working for the Gannett weeklies during the winter of 2002 as a freelance writer. He joined the daily staff soon after and has since covered various high school and pro sports. Away from sportswriting, Josh lives in Westchester and spends his free time either with his fiancee, Sarah, or expertly managing his various championship-winning fantasy sports teams. He's visited 21 major-league baseball stadiums and insists that Fenway Park and Wrigley Field are the best by far. Josh graduated from Carmel High School in 1998, then went to Boston University, where, in 2002, he received a degree in communications with a minor in history.
Jake Thomases Jake Thomases has covered baseball, hockey, girls basketball, and girls soccer for the Journal News since arriving in 2003. He previously interned at The Poughkeepsie Journal while attending Vassar College. He is socking money away under his mattress to buy the Knicks, at which time he will trade Jerome James to Cleveland for a ham sandwich.

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From left, Kennedy Catholic seniors Sarah Viebrock, Anthony Corona, Michael Mercurio, and Luis Gonzalez, pose for a photo with their parents after signing their  National Letters of Intent at the school in Somers Nov. 12, 2008.  ( Frank Becerra Jr  / The Journal News )
From left, Kennedy Catholic seniors Sarah Viebrock, Anthony Corona, and Michael Mercurio, watch as Luis Gonzalez prepare to sign his  National Letter of Intent at the school in Somers Nov. 12, 2008.  ( Frank Becerra Jr  / The Journal News )
From left, Kennedy Catholic seniors Sarah Viebrock, Anthony Corona, and Michael Mercurio, watch as Luis Gonzalez prepare to sign his  National Letter of Intent at the school in Somers Nov. 12, 2008.  ( Frank Becerra Jr  / The Journal News )
From left, Kennedy Catholic seniors Sarah Viebrock, Anthony Corona, and Michael Mercurio, watch as Luis Gonzalez prepare to sign his  National Letter of Intent at the school in Somers Nov. 12, 2008.  ( Frank Becerra Jr  / The Journal News )
From left, Kennedy Catholic seniors Sarah Viebrock, Anthony Corona, and Michael Mercurio, watch as Luis Gonzalez prepare to sign his  National Letter of Intent at the school in Somers Nov. 12, 2008.  ( Frank Becerra Jr  / The Journal News )
Dan Diaz, Nanuet, infielder: Eyes turned to the junior shortstop/pitcher after his 17-strikeout virtuoso on May 2. His next start was a no-hitter, followed by a two-hit shutout. Using a biting slider and upper 80s fastball, he went 7-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Over the last month he batted .550 to raise his season average to .446. His 1.258 OPS was No. 3 in the county; his ERA was No. 4. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Steve Putnick, Pearl River, utility: The graduations of Sean Giblin, Ian Reese, and Jeff Allison left Putnick, a pitcher/third baseman, as Pearl River’s one returning star. The Pirates were 6-3 in his starts; 6-9 otherwise. The senior, who will walk on at Marist, threw more innings than anyone in Rockland except Aviles. He was a table-setter in the 3-hole, reaching base nearly half the time. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Adonis Germosen, East Ramapo, infielder: The Titan bats didn’t hit like they were supposed to, with one exception. Germosen, a senior catcher, belted homers in three straight games before April was even half over ‹ the last of which Carmel coach Bob Shilling called the farthest he’s ever seen at his home field. He hit a county-high six while scoring 24 runs and driving in 20, earning a late roster spot at St. Thomas Aquinas. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Bill Smith, Nanuet, outfielder: The senior provided the legs in Nanuet’s multi-pronged attack. He swiped a base in 13 different games and led the county with 16 steals overall. Part of that was opportunity ‹ he hit over.400 with a .479 on-base percentage. Because of all his mischief on the basepaths, he scored 25 runs, third-best in Rockland. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Ron Gamma, Suffern, coach of the year: After suffering a disheartening 16-0 loss on opening day, it became a wire-to-wire season for the Mounties, who quickly established themselves as the top team in Rockland and proved it by making the Class AA sectional final. Other coaches were most impressed that Gamma negotiated his way through 12 League I-B games without a loss. He knew when to step in and when to cede decisions to his pitching coach. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Jordan Kolinsky, Clarkstown South, infielder: When the senior was shelved with an ankle injury in mid-May, Clarkstown South tumbled. The Vikings went 0-7 with their pitcher/first baseman first sidelined and then hobbled. Despite the handicap, Kolinsky managed to bat .414 with 28 RBI. As a pitcher he was carefully confusing, never throwing the same speed twice in the same at-bat. His 1.78 ERA ranked No. 2 in the county. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Jim Brennan, Suffern, outfielder: Potential had exceeded production for the center fielder. Until his junior year, when he exploded for a .467 average ‹ 200 points better than last year ‹ with a county-leading 34 runs, 10 doubles and nearly .900 slugging percentage, with 25 RBI from the leadoff spot.  As Suffern’s third starter he went 5-1, including a masterful playoff performance at John Jay. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )
Nick Viohl, North Rockland, pitcher: North Rockland leaned heavily on senior pitchers Fasano and Viohl. Viohl delivered with a 1.67 ERA, lowest in Rockland County and eighth-lowest in the section among those with at least 30 innings. He allowed only 26 hits in 46 innings, an incredible ratio. ( Angela Gaul / The Journal News )
Tyler Rorick, Tappan Zee, outfielder: Tappan Zee’s season was almost dead when Rorick pitched the Dutchmen to a 3-1 victory over Pearl River that revived their hopes. As they were winning 12 of 16 he hit in every game. He batted .500 over that stretch and .422 for the year. Without the senior’s clutch stick and arm, Tappan Zee would have folded. ( Angela Gaul / The Journal News )
Joe Ferrara, Clarkstown North, utility: With Chris O’Grady out, the toughest pitching assignments fell to the senior. Even when used in relief, it was in crucial situations, allowing him to pick up decisions in 10 of 11 appearances. As a hitter he was an on-base machine (19 walks) because of a keen eye for pitches. He’ll join Germosen and Wargo at St. Thomas Aquinas. ( Angela Gaul / The Journal News )
George Wargo, North Rockland, infielder: The preseason began with the senior in a battle to be the starting catcher. Coach Tom Lynch has to be happy with his choice after Wargo threw out 60 percent of baserunners. He thrived behind the plate, delivering a .403 average ‹ 100 points higher than last year ‹ to provide rare consistency in North Rockland’s order. ( Peter Carr / The Journal News )




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