This list has been long-awaited and I’m sure will be maddening for some teams. Before I get started, here’s what swayed me:
— How many starters are back?
— How many pitchers are back?
— How much success did the team have last year?
It sounds like fairly obvious criteria, but here’s what I’ve learned over the years of covering high school baseball…Just because a couple stars are back doesn’t mean the team will be strong no matter what. Baseball is more about the depth of talent than anything. Remember: This isn’t basketball.
How many times have teams returned lineups nearly intact and not had the pitching to live up to preseason expectations? Take Hastings of 2007. After a near perfect season, the Yellow Jackets had all their stars back except for Dan Bohm. But without Bohm closing games and Greg Weidner, who was injured, anchoring the rotation, Hastings never found the same rhythm. It still had a fierce lineup but that wasn’t enough. Only a late run delivered another Class B title.
Anyway, keep those kind of things in mind when you’re considering your own top 10. Here’s mine…
1. MAMARONECK (30-2, won Class AA state championship): Who else besides Mamurderneck? The Tigers enter the season with as high expectations for any team I can remember in a decade. Even the great Ketcham state champ didn’t return this much — eight of nine starters and all of the top four pitchers — but that team is the one Mike Chiapparelli should focus on. Ketcham had all the goods and had won before yet didn’t even reach the championship game in Section 1 the following season. The message: Nothing will be handed to Mamaroneck. … When it comes to talent, however, the Tigers are tops. Sean Hagan (St. John’s) and Matt McGovern (BC) have committed D-I. The Glasers, Luke and Christian, hope to walkon. Mike Rosenfeld, who will replace Chris Dearwester at catcher, is a surefire D-I prospect as a junior. And Gabe Klein, Andrew Benkwitt (both undecided) and Taylor Mondshein (D-III Williams) will all play some sort of college ball. … I’d say their ceiling is 28-0 and another state championship. But in the Section 1 and state playoffs it will only take one bad game. Their offense had none in last year’s postseason. Can it beat a Rob Aviles or a Steve Green in a big late May game?
2. SUFFERN (21-7, lost to Mamaroneck in Class AA final): I just said you can’t base a team’s success on the strength of a couple stars. Suffern is not a two-man team. But when those two men do as much as Robbie Aviles and Jimmy Brennan, your team can’t be dismissed. Ever. Aviles has a chance to be a Sean Giblin-like force as a junior. His fastball already hums in the low 90s, and his desire must burn pretty hot after a remarkable sophomore season was spoiled by last year’s Class AA final thumping at the hands (and bats) of mighty Mamaroneck. But remember this about the Mounties: They won their last 14 games against Section 1 opponents other than two losses to the Tigers. They were the second-hottest team in Class AA by the end. … They will miss Matt Aquilino in the middle of the order and behind the plate and Jared Randazzo, who, along with Brennan, filled in the rotation behind Aviles. As long as the St. John’s-bound Brennan can be the true No. 2 and still maintain his remarkable all-around play, Suffern should be Mamaroneck’s toughest competition.
3. KENNEDY (27-3, won Class B state title): A Class B team so high? Believe it. The Gaels should be very, very good. They are the defending state champ and bring back almost every piece. SS Mike Mercurio (High Point) and C Anthony Corona (C.W. Post) anchor the lineup and provide solid defenders at key positions. RHPs Nick Modico and Richie Lennox provide two of Kennedy’s top three starters. The Gaels will miss Ryan Tatnell, the winningest pitcher in program history, but the rest of the pitching is back. … In addition to Mercurio and Corona, Kennedy returns Brendan Dowd, Joe Rock, Joe Smith, Joe Santangelo and Luis Gonzalez. That’s a lot. Don’t forget Gonzalez, who caught for the injured Corona in the playoffs. His versatility was key. … Overall, this is no regular Class B team. The Gaels have to be the favorite to win another state title — and to finish as one of the best teams in the section.
4. KETCHAM (20-7, lost to Mamaroneck in the Class AA semis): The Indians graduated just six seniors but lost a couple key ones in C Kyle Kalaka and Jeff Freyhagen. The underclassmen were key during their run to the Class AA semis. Masher Mike Orefice, Shane Peterman, Chris Jackson, Matt Peters and Mike Lang all played significant roles. … If I peruse the rosters and stats, I’d pencil this club in as the League 1-C favorite right now. Frankly, however, it could go to anyone yet again.
5. ARLINGTON (16-10, lost to Mamaroneck in Class AA quarters): The Admirals are a very tough team to judge. They graduated their ace (Greg Ackley) and big masher (Joe Gatewood), as well as other key hitters and pitchers. Still, Arlington’s season will be determined by how well new faces fill the holes because there are a number of talented players returning. Nick Camastro, the Manhattan-bound SS, anchors the lineup. Two of the team’s top four pitchers, Dylan Britton (younger brother of blog legend Colin Britton) and Tyler Albrecht, are both back, too.
6. MOUNT ST. MICHAEL (15-13, lost in CHSAA intersectional tournament): There are three reasons I like any CHSAA team as the preseason favorite and the Mountaineers have all three. 1. The respect of fellow coaches. Guys I’ve talked to believe in Mount. 2. Seniors. Mount returns most of its players, including its No. 1 and No. 2 pitchers. 3. Pitching. In the wood-bat league, starters rule. Ace Thomas Cardona and No. 2 Steven Rivera are as good a tandem as you will find in the LoHud, right up there with Hagan and Benkwitt and Aviles and Brennan. That pair — and Mount as a whole — quietly progressed late in the season, highlighted by its series’ win over Iona Prep that qualified it for the city tournament. This year the Mountaineers may take that next step.
7. STEPINAC (19-8, CHSAA final four): This is not an easy team to judge. What would have happened to the Dodgers without Manny? The impact could be similar here. Alex Maruri not only hit in a league where hits go to die, he also affected the game. Teams always had to be aware of him in the on-deck circle or in the hole, and it helped his team offensively, even when Maruri wasn’t at the plate. The onus will now fall on guys like Anthony Muccio and Steven and Eddie Martinez without Maruri, Eric Capowski and Noel Torres around in the middle of the order. Stepinac has a few new young pitchers to bolster a staff that will be led by Ed Byrne. The Crusaders will need them to step up if they want to repeat as Bronx-Westchester champs.
8. JOHN JAY (20-5, lost to Suffern in Class AA semis): The Indians are both trumped and dumped on here quite often. The truth about them probably falls somewhere in between. They did reach the semis last year and they did it without ace Steve Green, who was one of the best pitchers in the section before he went down with a shoulder injury. How many teams could’ve knocked off Clarkstown North and Mahopac in the playoffs without their No. 1? Not many. … John Jay has a lot back. A healthier Green, a hard throwing lefty; SS Anthony Iacomini, the South Carolina signee who is one of the section’s best players; C Alan Filauro; CF Ray Maggi (Monmouth); 2B Kyle Clemenson and 1B/OF/LHP Lou Ricci (Johns Hopkins), among others. The question will be who will fill in behind Green on the pitching staff? John Jay will miss John Swertfager and Chris Eidam. But Ricci and junior Dean Lambert will be the likely guys to step in. If they can backup Green, and if Green can stay healthy, the Indians may be even better. Their lineup with miss two anchors in Ryan Mitchell and J.K. Filauro, but it should be good enough to rank among the section’s best.
9. SOMERS (18-8, Class A champ; lost in state regional semis): This is where I start getting a little skeptical. The Tuskers have perhaps the best two-way player in Section 1 — who other than Dan Zlotnick is one of the ten best hitters and pitchers? — but they lost a lot to graduation. Their pitching staff lost Dan ”$$$” Tracy, Jerry Battipaglia and Ron Stenz, all of who were major contributors. Zlotnick has proven his durability, but he will need Henry Rulhand and others to fill in. The offense has perhaps its two best bats back in Zlotnick and Kyle Woltersdorf, but it will miss Stenz, Willie Sisca, Mike Ausiello, Steve Finella and Vinny Nicolosi. Who will replace that group? The Tuskers have a lot of questions to answer.
10. ???: There are other teams who will claim this spot, but who deserves it? I’m not sure. Lakeland, the No. 1 seed in Class A, lost Section 1’s player of the year. Pelham, the No. 2 in A, lost almost everyone. Carmel and Mahopac were depleted by graduation. Fox Lane will rely on some young pitchers. North Rockland lost several of its top players. Iona Prep? No Alex Adami.
The best bet may be Clarkstown South, which returns several guys, like Alex Lorenc and Ian Baker. But after a 13-12 season that included a seven-game losing streak to finish up, the Vikings — just like everyone else — have to prove they belong.
I’m sure my indecision will aggravate some of you. So…who’s your No. 10?