The official seeding meeting for the 2013 playoffs is scheduled for Monday morning, but what’s the fun in waiting around? As I do every year, I took a stab at projecting the seeds now that teams have completed their regular season schedules. The disclaimer here is that I can guarantee that these projections will NOT be 100 percent accurate, but I think they’ll be pretty close. I’ve been doing math the past few days to get an idea of what the seeds in each class might look like, but I am also at the mercy of the information that I can find. There are a few teams that I’m not confident about in terms of their final records, but I know that many of you are clamoring for some sort of a glimpse at the seeds. Click here to take a look at the seeding formula on BOCES. Once I added up a team’s total points for wins, ties and bonus points, I divided it by the number of games played to come up with that team’s seeding score.
Projected top seed – Arlington
Notes: Had Panas not won a game at the Ketcham tournament on Saturday and finished under .500, we would have had a three-way tie for the top spot with the Admirals, North Rockland and White Plains. I had each team with a 3.9 seeding score prior to the Panas win, but the extra bonus point improves Arlington’s score to 3.95. I expect the Admirals to take the No. 1 seed.
Next in line – North Rockland, White Plains, Fox Lane, John Jay-EF, Ketcham
Notes: North Rockland should get the No. 2 seed thanks to a head-to-head win over WP earlier this season. From there, Fox Lane (3.65), John Jay-EF (3.55) and Ketcham (3.5) should round the top six.
Middle of the pack – Mamaroneck, Clarkstown South, New Rochelle, Mahopac, Clarkstown North
Notes: The fact that Mamaroneck played four games out-of-state to begin the year works to its benefit for seeding purposes. While most teams factor 20 games into the formula, the Tigers only use 16. With a 10-6 record in New York state and a total of 15 bonus points, my projection is that Mamo will be the No. 7 seed. I have Clarkstown South, New Rochelle and Mahopac each with a 3.35 score, but South should get a home game at No. 8 because it has the most bonus points of the trio (the tiebreaker in that scenario). I see New Ro and Mahopac rounding out the top 10, with North coming in at No. 11.
Outbracket-bound – Kennedy, Carmel, Suffern, Lincoln, Greeley, Ossining, Scarsdale, Mount Vernon
Notes: Based on the information that I have, it looks like 19 teams will make the Class AA tourney. Yorktown was on the fence, but finished 4-16 and seems to be under the .250 winning percentage in its class, league and overall. If this is the case, every team seeded 12th or worse will play an outbracket game. That would be all of the teams listed above.
Projected top seed – Tappan Zee
Notes: The Dutchmen don’t have the best overall record in Class A at 13-7, but they do have the most bonus points (21), which adds up to a 3.65 seeding score. A very tough schedule helps TZ land the top spot, coupled with the fact that there was no dominant team in Class A this season.
Next in line – Sleepy Hollow, Eastchester, Beacon, Pelham
Notes: Sleepy has the best overall record in Class A at 15-5, which earns the Horsemen the No. 2 seed (3.55 seeding score). Eastchester looks like it will grab the third seed (3.44), with Beacon (3.25) and Pelham (3.21) rounding out the top five.
Middle of the pack – John Jay, Byram Hills, Somers, Harrison, Pearl River, Nyack
Notes: There’s a big jumble after the top five, with all six of these teams having very similar scores. John Jay is my projected sixth seed (3.1), followed by Byram (3.05), Somers (3.0), Harrison (2.9), Pearl River (2.89) and Nyack (2.8). Again, in a situation this tight, don’t be surprised if the order looks a bit different tomorrow, but this is what I came up with.
Outbracket-bound – Panas, Lakeland, Hen Hud, Saunders, Yonkers, Nanuet, Rye, Riverside, Port Chester and Gorton
Notes: I currently have 21 teams qualifying in Class A, but there are a couple of teams who I’m having a tough time confirming records for, so don’t be surprised if one or two more sneak in. If it stays at 21, then any team seeded 10th or worse will have to play an outbracket game. The order I have the teams listed above is a rough estimate of the order in which they may be seeded from 12-21.
Projected top seed – Rye Neck
Notes: The Panthers have the best record in the section, and it earns them the top seed in Class B. Bonus points aren’t even much of a factor since Rye Neck has 18 wins (4.0 seeding score).
Next in line – North Salem, Lourdes, Pleasantville, Briacliff, Keio, Ardsley
Notes: North Salem should be the clear-cut No. 2 seed with a 3.75 seeding score, but Lourdes looks like the potential third seed. I don’t have a final record for them, but I know that they have at least 12 wins. Since the next best seeding score is Pleasantville at 3.15, I think that Lourdes may have enough to come in at No. 3. I have Briarcliff and Keio with the same score, but the Bears won head-to-head, so they should take the fifth seed.
Middle of the pack – Albertus Magnus, PutnamValley, Dobbs Ferry, Pawling
Notes: Magnus looks like it could get a home game thanks to a strong finish. The Falcons ended up 10-10 (which helped many teams in Rockland in terms of bonus points), and fall into a three-way tie with Put Valley and Dobbs with a 2.75 seeding score. Magnus has the most bonus points of the three, so they should take the eighth seed in a tiebreaker scenario. Pawling looks like it could avoid an outbracket game.
Outbracket bound – Westlake, Valhalla, Blind Brook, Woodlands, Irvington, Bronxville, Croton-Harmon, Hastings
Notes: I’m having no luck finding final records for Blind Brook and Woodlands, so their seeding is purely speculation based on the little info that I do have. I know for sure that both teams will qualify, which makes a total of 19 in Class B. That means that every team seeded 12th or worse should be playing in the outbracket round.
Projected top seed – Tuckahoe
Notes: The Tigers have had the best record in Class C all season, by far, which earns them the top seed.
Next in line – Haldane, Solomon Schechter, Palisade Prep, YMA, Hamilton
Notes: Haldane will likely grab the No. 2 seed, setting up a potential rematch of the past few section title games with Tuckahoe. Schechter and Palisade Prep should get home games in the quarters.